by Ibrahim » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:59 pm
Newt's surge relative to Romney is the most interesting thing to me, and I think we are finally down to are two main contenders in the primary. Can Newt beat Romeny? Absolutely. But I think that hurts the GOP in the general election, which often tends to have more to do with the "likability" of the candidates and other admittedly shallow but influential considerations.
Obama seems to have led a relatively blameless private life, as has Romney. I think Newt's numerous affairs, dumping the ailing wife for the mistress, etc. could really kill him with women voters, and as a major swing-vote demographic that alone could kill him. Then there is the career as a beltway insider that sours the libertarians and other anti-establishment voters on the right. His general "likability" and charisma is obviously pretty low in the era when this matters more than ever. And so on.
Gingrich banks on being the "smart" candidate, but the historical success of that is mixed. Plus, Obama doesn't come off as particularly dumb, the way that Reagan or Carter did, so its hard to look noticeably "smarter" in contrast.