Supercommittee Supercrash

[Demon of Undoing]

Oky. I'm too lazy to post a link from my eyephone. It's like fighting an electrified octopus and I hate it.

However, pick a story, any story. Google " supercommitte" and " Thanksgiving" and " what dope are you on". Over nine thousand hits.

So, exactly how deep is this going to get us? Well, I'm predicting mid- chest.

Why?

This is the same deal everyone thought of as some kind of a win. I was saying that the damage was done because a)the rest of the world ( read : critical investors, as the primary dealers aren't going to help much soon) saw us showing our ass during the negotiations. Important people had to have concluded that America can no longer be taken seriously in terms of leadership.

As well, b) this Supercommitte thing was the " solution"- while the ceiling is days from being breached again. Some solution- automatic and mindless cuts bereft of a good, leapfrogging fall back in mission and scope as regards virtually every aspect of American policy. The ideal was Paul's tactical retreat. You are about to see a rout.

I spew too much doom and gloom. I can discourage anybody in five minutes. I only go on for the lulz. So I keep a lot of this to myself, believe it or not. You lot get just the overflow. But this is grade -A nasty stuff inbound.

You can't cut that much from anywhere in the Federal budget and not have really bad ramifications. The budget is beyond strained right now and is in deep negatives when you look at near term responsibilities, never mind long term. There is no indication that any of the entrentched interests and their attendant Washington units are going to lay down for cuts, with one soon to be tragic exception ( more later).

How's that going to go, you think? They'll cut SS, right? No difficulties envisioned, hm? No, FDA. Fuck the FDA. All Federal law enforcement, overnight. That won't have any effect at all. State subsidies in all their multifaceted splendor? Go ahead. Right now, the states are doing just fine. Not.

Again, sans our exception, it's going to increase friction already at crippling levels. The ground is ready to shatter. The world news is such that small blows could do it. This will not be a small blow. And the why of that is our exception.

The exception, of course, is the military. I meant to say something about the Supercommitte days ago and mentioned it briefly. Cincinatus' comments in another thread have put this aspect in my mind again, because I was aware when this winning budget deal was signed that we would be dealing with this, just as we are. They didn't kick the can very far, and by the way of what they did and how they did it, may have put an end to a whole lot of can kicking being done elsewhere.

I invite Cincinatus to expound on any particulars he is at liberty to discuss, but let me tell you what generally happens to troops in an unpopular war when the music stops and they are left without a chair, what with being in the mountains of Afghanistan and having to struggle to listen.

Oh, hell, why bother. You know what happens. If not, keep watching. You will see the troops we all support literally begin to lose support. If the missions stay the same, air support is one of the first thing that gets hard to come by. All of a sudden, ground troops need more justification to expend ordinance. Less airframes available to begin with. Spares issues. It goes downhill. Just scaled back air support fills body bags. Other, minor things, add up.

It's not that the world can't live without the American military. But we are engaged in so many places doing so many things that are on the verge of falling to shit with current funding that any real cuts will break somebody's camel's back.

This is just an overview. I am certain that other problems can be dredged up. This isn't just another thing. We are about to have a fairly rough year.

[noddy]

.

[the glowing carp]

[Mr. Perfect]

I think the supercrash was the whole idea behind it. I think it should work pretty good.

[Tinker]

Close lots of bases and bring the troops home from Afghanistan. We will be safer if w are not antagonizing the entire world.

Social Security is not part of the Federal Budget, so its irrelevant.

[Demon of Undoing]

[Tinker]

[Demon of Undoing]

Yeah, great principles. All in with you. But the point is that this is not a measured cut situation. The military is about to be axe murdered. The troops will pay for it.

I'll go ahead and repeat what I said on the Spengler forum in 2007, and for which I was derided: this generation of soldiers will be done more unfairly than any in American history. The troops will pay for stupid civilian constructs, again. We can transition more intelligently, to say the least. This would be a hazardous passage through lines under the best of circumstances.

My fault, your fault, nobody's fault, whatever. I'm standing by saying that this is the third act starting up.

[Tinker]

[cincinnatus]

Unlike the discussion about the F-35, I can comment here without worrying about whether my comments are from my knowledge of the classified side, so I'll bite.

First, Tinker, very very very astute reasoning.

Devil is in the details however. I mentioned before two principles: cut the misson and requirement first, then POM out the drawdown in the blood and iron. Doing it the opposite is deadly to the warm bodies who will, and are, being asked, even with drawdowns in Iraq, to go do difficult, and damn-near pipe dream impossible missions.

Second, the "war chests" that I mentioned very briefly. It literally is what the 3 services have done (remember, the USMC falls under the jurisdiction of the Department of the Navy)...created a theoretical doomsday book of programs, bases and personnel cuts they'll make to absorb the (minimum) $550 billion in automatic cuts when the "supercommitte" fails. Mind you, imagine how the congress criters (good word Monster Gardener) will flail when the repurcussions of the auto cuts are that their precious bases and weapon systems will be BRAC'ed. Yea, no danger there that congress will deny the DoD the ability to make smart choices in creating more joint bases with flat admin overhead, vice maintaining single-mission bases that are too costly, or make us buy an un-needed aircraft or second engine or something.

Nowhere is there a "war chest" of cuts to missions and responsibilities that the CINC can tell us to do. Leaving Iraq? Blah. How much residual will simply transition to Kuwait, UAE or Oman? Numbers I see are 75% remaining. Afghanistan? The "Good War" of 2008's election? Still on the books, and even a "drawdown" will be nothing but political direction, with no reprieve on what the remaining forces are asked to accomplish.

And that's without mentioning the undeclared wars in 3 other countries. Or the alarming rise in responsibilities to "protect the global commons." Or freedom of navigation. Or closing bases outside the U.S. Hell, as Carp has posted, it's the opposite...increasing U.S. presence in the wonderful Australia (no sarcasm..love that place...if I could have been born anywhere else, it would be Italy then Australia).

So, it's the exact opposite of my first principle. Nothing is changing for the responsibilities of Globo-Cop. The pulling out of Iraq, and maybe eventually in Afghanistan are the smoke and mirrors to make otherwise intelligent people thump their chests that we're done and can slice and dice without filling body bags.

To quote Blink 182, "I'm too depressed, I can't go on, you'll be sorry when I'm gone..."

[crashtech]

The good citizens of the USA will be unwilling to cut their own benefits or radically raise their own taxes to maintain the current military budget. Eventually entitlements will go too, but it seems evident to me that the military will go first.

[Demon of Undoing]

...and there is the nut of this problem, the thing that turns bad times into catastrophes.

America is diametrically opposed to itself. Alph is correct that it's just heads of the same coin, but the coin refuses to let the other guy land with his side up.It's an unflippable coin, it won't make decisions. It will either paralyze itself in midair or land on the edge.

Only solution is winner take all, the MrP plan, but it's only going to happen so much. America isn't divided over simple fashion preferences.

And the military will likely pay the worst toll. As usual.

[Azrael]

[Tinker]

[Azrael]

[Ibrahim]

[quote="Demon of Undoing"]And the military will likely pay the worst toll. As usual.{/quote]

The military never suffers at all. Its a fat bloated baby stuffing birthday cake it its mouth and has been for 50+ years. Even what be labeled "massive" military cuts won't be nearly as significant as what the Pentagon could actually trim and still remain effective as a defensive force.


But the troops? Yes they will get screwed like they have ever since Korea, but that simply puts them in the same category as many other Americans beaten up by the economy. Poor? Bad medical care? Nobody cares about you? Welcome to most of America, 2015.

Peter the Great gave Russian veterans the legal right to beg in the streets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. That's what Veterans Affairs policy is going to look like down the time.