Yes, Spengler, there's a Sanity Clause

[Tinker]

I doubt Mitt would put people like Alito in. People like Roberts perhaps.

[Azrael]

Isn't Roberts just Alito with better manners?

[Colonel Sun]

[Tinker]

Heh, perhaps so.

[Demon of Undoing]

Has little to do with sanity, at least as regards the Ohio turn. Has everything to do with wanting their free beer. Most " retreats toward the center" will in fact be the milquetoast ideological wanderings of the critical " middle", who tend to lack the courage of their convictions. It's those sorts of " moderates", who can not be bothered to make real change nor consistently stand on principle, who do vote their wallet and not their conscience, that have us where we are. Barring good leadership or some serious self examination, this " hooray for me, fuck you" vibe will eat our lunch.

It is too- generous pay and benefit ( specifically pensions) that have the states so boned. If somebody is unwilling to make drastic action there, then they are part of the problem.

[Mr. Perfect]

[Tinker]

I see status quo in the House and status quo in the Senate with regards to the parties. A lot of incumbents will probably get the ax, but that will be Democrats being replaced with Democrats and Republicans replaced with Republicans. The GOP will probably lose some seats in the house but maintain a majority, and I know they will lose one seat in the Senate in Massachussetts, not sure about other races.

I am interested in Martin Heinrich vs Heather Wilson fighting for Jeff Bingaman's seat in New Mexico. That might be one place where the GOP sees a gain.

[Azrael]

I more-or-less agree about status quo.

I think that the Republicans might pick up a couple of seats in the House due to redistricting, but not that many, since the district maps were already very favorable to Republicans. Then again, they might not, because there is higher turnout in Presidential election years, which tends to be good for Democrats. In the Senate, the Democrats will probably lose two or three and pick up at least one (in Massachusetts), keeping their majority. Obama will get reelected.

[Mr. Perfect]

Azrael predicted the Dems keeping the House in the other forum last election. Bloodied but victorious I believe were the words. I keep track of these things.

Most analysts give us the Senate this election, and up to 56+ seats by 2014. I put Obama's re-election at 40%. He has ticked up a couple of points due to the current contention in the primary, perfectly normal. Once we settle on a nominee that nominee will get the normal 5% boost and have a fairly easy path to victory. Obama's topline number is the best thing going for him as weak as it is, his internals and electoral college numbers are worse. Gravity breaks to your internals, not your topline.

Which is amazing, after the coronation of the greatest man of all time, Barack Obama and the ushering in of the 40 year liberal progressive epoch, just a few years later we have one Republican Nation Under God.

I wonder what happened.

[Azrael]

[Mr. Perfect]

[Azrael]

That was in April, more than six months before the election. , I was predicting a Republican majority in the House.

Edit: and you neglected to mention that, in the post that you quote, I actually expected the Republicans to pick up seven seats in the Senate, when they ended up only picking up six, so you shouldn't accuse me of systematically underestimating the Republicans.

[Mr. Perfect]

Well now we're a year from the election, so your predictions should be even worse.

Senate Seats are dramatically easier to predict. But fair is fair, you were pretty close.

[Azrael]

[Mr. Perfect]

House loses 5-8 seats, GOP side.

51 GOP Senators.

Obama has a 40% re-election chance. Nate Silver recently gave Obama 50-50, and he has ended up being Democrat leaning, so I think my number is very good.

I do not yet predict the GOP nominee. The more unpredictable that race the better.

Edit, generally my predictions are fairly cautious. The upside in this scenario is if the GOP candidate ends up with coattails. Obama in all these midterms and off elections has had negative coattails. So picking up the Senate with Obama winning is a perfectly viable scenario.

[Mr. Perfect]

I will say this, Obama only has two things going for him on his own merits, the MSM and incumbency. That is really thin. The GOP has beat both of those before, we can do it again.

I think even though the charges against Cain are pretty thin, I give him a C plus in handling it. I like a Republican who will kick reporters in the teeth as well as the next guy, but you have to remember you always have multiple audiences in political theater. Cain can do bellicose, that we know, the question is can he articulate. This was a chance for him to do that and he didn't. So down, but not out.

Ron Paul is an easy winner against Obama, so is Mitt Romney as is. There is not likely to be much economic recovery by election day, and Obama has shown that he basically doesn't have anything to offer the American people. Even though Iraq had improved by the end of the Bush term, it was too little too late. Obama faces that now.

[Tinker]

I will take seriously predictions for the Senate when people start talking about which seats they think will change hands.

[Mr. Perfect]

Then you'll miss the whole thing.

[Tinker]

[Mr. Perfect]

The less my opposition studies the playing field the more likely my predictions will come true.

[Tinker]

[Mr. Perfect]

Sounds very good to me.

[Tinker]

[Azrael]

[Ibrahim]

Solid PM. Except the banhammer.


I think Spengler has proven once again that he has no real convictions of any kind beyond down with hippes/Muslims. Reversing himself on Romney falls into the former camp, obviously.