Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

[Hoosiernorm]

Good to see you again Alph, I was worried that you had stopped posting due to illness or some other dramatic change in lifestyle. I hope all is well

[Colonel Sun]

Hello, Alph. Welcome!

[AzariLoveIran]

[AzariLoveIran]

[Alph]

[Tinker]

Alph The flaw in your thinking is that you don't take into account the deflationary principles behind logarithmic technological advancement. As technology gets more advanced its antecedents become cheaper. Most of American consumption is now virtual goods. Media makes up the bulk of our standard of living. So if a person can afford a domicile, food, transportation (public will do) some basic equipment, then the price of media will be fungible based upon what the market will pay for such things. Generally you can get tons of media at a fixed cost of about $ 150 a month and have a wide variety of choice. Choice will only increase as more people start putting their back-catalogues online just to make residual cash. Physical toys have already been taking major hits next to Video games for years. Video Games are the largest consumer entertainment business, beating out the film and music industries. As long as media is affordable, the standard of living will be relatively interchangeable in terms of amusements.

[Endovelico]

I'm just back from Paris where I attended a one day seminar on the present economic crisis, and had the joy of hearing a very respected German economist - Till van Treek - stating quite forcefully that the main problem is the external deficit, not the budget deficit. Exactly what I have been telling my students for the last four years. It's good to find out one is not crazy, or at least that one is not the only one affected with the same type of madness... I will tell you more about it later.

[Demon of Undoing]

[Tinker]

[Demon of Undoing]

[Alph]

[AzariLoveIran]

[Colonel Sun]

[Tinker]

[Colonel Sun]

I wonder. If there's one thing I've learn is that it's difficult to make predictions - especially about the future.

An Alph deconstruction of the situation and claims such as the one above would be very interesting . . .

[Colonel Sun]

[AzariLoveIran]

[Tinker]

[AzariLoveIran]

.

Bush presidency 8 years

Jan 31, 2001 .. Jan 31, 2009

DOW .. 10887 .. 8000 .. Loss 2887 - 36%

Nasdaq .. 2772 .. 1476 .. loss 1296 - 46%

S&P 500 .. 1366 .. 825 .. loss 541 - 39%



Obama Presidency 19 months

Jan 31, 2009 Oct 15,2010

Dow .. 8000 .. 11062 .. gain 3062 +38%

Nasdaq .. 1476 .. 2468 .. gain 992 +67%

S&P500 .. 825 .. 1174 .. gain 351 +42%


looks pretty good for a SOCIALIST president


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[Colonel Sun]

Two assumptions:

1/ The dominant factor driving the stock market is the POTUS serving at that time; and

2/ Stock markets cycles begin with a new POTUS and end with his departure.

If investing and/or speculating in the markets was only that simple.

[Alph]

[Alph]

[AzariLoveIran]

.

As credit quality of American consumer is deteriorating, America is becoming a "Prepaid Nation" ..





Not necessarily a bad thing .. not a good idea to spend money you don't have .. American style consumer credit does not exist in Europe (everything paid cash .. not credit card but debit card) ..

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[AzariLoveIran]

[Colonel Sun]