Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

[Tinker]

[Mr. Perfect]

Yes, but only one side created a completely false dire scenario that will blow up in their faces and will hurt them seriously in the polls. And it ain't my side. Both sides are teaching the country that you can't trust Obama or a Democrat, and the country appears to be learning that.

[Tinker]

[Mr. Perfect]

Just wait.

[Alexis]

[skyhook77sfg]

think you are right...

have noticed major change in tone of corporate media talking heads even at Fou News..

even tenacity in followup questions painting tea party kings and queens in to the loony corner.

their corporate masters have suddenly realized the golem/frankenstein (depending on your personal preference) they created is out of control

and needs to be brought back on the reservation before bottom lines go south with a giant sucking sound

still might need the peasants marching on the castle with pitchforks though to keep the bad kabuki

from turning into a coming attractions promo for the ultimate rocky horror picture show

[Mr. Perfect]

I guess all the people touting skyhook's doom scenario were just lying after all.

But I knew it all along! Couldn't fool me!

[skyhook77sfg]

аппара́тчик

the scenario of mine you misquote and mangle in your rush to rePublican party paradise was and is based upon default/government shutdown/dollar devaluation.

DO ALL PERVERTS LIE ALL THE TIME?



AND HERE IS A THOUGHT FROM THE ONLY APPARENTLY FUNCTIONAL ECONOMY AMONG THE WESTERN INDUSTRIAL NATIONS

translated from the original German at BILD just for the philologically inept such as yourself...

and i quote verbatim et litteratim :


"The Republicans have turned a dispute over a technicality into a religious war"

[Mr. Perfect]

Whatever. You were peddling the scare stories, pulling plugs on old people, watching them die (but you can't watch!), which you now acknowledge won't happen. You were lying, you knew better.

Deal with it.

[skyhook77sfg]

аппара́тчик

amazing how you know what i know

when i dont know how you reactionary retrograde republican robber baron useful idiots

will actually play all this out when it comes to what we call nut cuttin time out on the range

cause from every indication the tail thats waggin your dog is more like a loose cannon on deck

that threatens to take all hands overboard with the next pitch of the ship...


glad im not on your ship of fools

[Colonel Sun]

[Colonel Sun]

[Colonel Sun]

Merkel as a geisha. Ow, my eyes.

[noddy]

[AzariLoveIran]

[Colonel Sun]

[Mr. Perfect]

[Mr. Perfect]

Reuters reporting all data from 2007-2009 has also been revised downward, but does not post the revisions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/ ... I420110729

[Colonel Sun]

[Mr. Perfect]

You're telling me. Before the Democrats convinced me under Bush that one man controlled everything that happens in the world I had radically different beliefs.

[Demon of Undoing]

It was known going into this quarter that the earthquake/tsunami was going to roll everybody. Obama's a dork, but I don't think he is Poseidon.

Very bad timing, though. Almost like Murphy has a grudge.

[noddy]

[Colonel Sun]

[noddy]

interesting, thanks for that - it is more than asia thats currently favouring german engineering and they arent as dependant on the asian boom as i thought.

[YMix]

Jack Barnes: Someone dropped a bomb on the bond market Thursday – a $1 billion Armageddon trade betting the United States will lose its AAA credit rating.

In one moment, an invisible trader placed a single trade that moved the most liquid debt market in the world.

The massive trade wasn’t placed in bonds themselves; it was placed in the futures market.

The trade was for block trades of 5,370 10-year Treasury futures executed at 124-03 and 3,100 Treasury bond futures executed at 125-01.

The value of the trade was about $850 million dollars. In simple terms, if that was a direct bond buy, no one would be talking about it.

However, with the use of futures, you have to have margin capacity behind the trade. That means with a single push of a button someone was willing to commit more than $1 billion of real capital to this trade with expectations of a 10-to-1 return ratio.

You only do this if you see an edge.
This means someone is confident that the United States is either going to default or is going to lose its AAA rating. That someone is willing to bet the proverbial farm that U.S. interest rates will be going up.

I believe what happened is a debt-ceiling deal was done in Washington and leaked to a major proprietary trader. Everyone knows the debt negotiations in Washington have been an extreme game of brinksmanship between political parties, but now someone knows how that game played out.

This had the hallmarks of one of the largest bond shops in the world knowing something the rest of the market didn’t.

The number of shops or even central banks that can take on this level of market risk is extremely small. Some that come to mind are hedge fund manager John Paulson, Bill Gross’s PIMCO, and the U.S. and Chinese central banks.

Paulson already scored big – about $6 billion big – on a similar trade years ago when he bet against subprime mortgages, the investments that helped bring down Lehman Bros. and many other investors.

Whoever was behind it wanted a trade on ASAP, and didn’t care about the ripples they would cause.

You can see how this trade caused fear to be unleashed in the market once it got out and the implications hit by looking at U.S. Treasuries. People who were long 30-year Treasuries panicked as they saw the huge short put on the futures market, and started to unwind their long exposure.

What you, as investors, should do now is look at the bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide a positive rate of return when U.S. Treasuries drop in value. Yields are going up sooner rather than later, if the person behind this Armageddon trade is correct.