by Torchwood » Sun Apr 03, 2011 9:51 am
I notice that, after a decent year's interval, when everybody is distracted by other energy news, that BP are once again allowed to drill in the Gulf of Mexico.
The Fukushima - Daiichi crisis will end eventually, probably in a concrete tomb for reactors 3 and 4. On the principle that news is worldwide these days, but with the attention span of a goldfish, how long before nuclear plans are quietly dusted off again?
There are two influences, acting in opposite directions. Except in France, investment virtually ceased in nuclear after Three Mile Island for two decades - but so did serious investment into alternative energy. While researching into solar energy for another thread, I noted that papers were either very recent or written in the '70s. After the second oil crisis finished in 1980, carbon fuels were dirt cheap until the "Chinese demand shock" lifted them into the stratosphere, as with all other commodities (a much more important factor than MENA political turbulence). Price seems a much more important driver of decisions than worthy green intentions. On this basis, nuclear will revive after a decent pause.
On the other hand, people are much more fearful of nuclear than of oil spills. You can tell them until you are blue in the face that the half life of Iodine 131 is shorter than the time it takes for spilt oil to disperse, and fossil fuel plants kill far more people than nuclear - but it is going to be a tough sell in democratic societies, and even in China.
I honestly don't know how this will play out. I have some friends who write reports on uranium mining. They glumly suggested that instead of PowerPoint, their next report would feature a brief disaster movie, with an intro by Homer Simpson. I suggested that they diversify into polycrystalline silicon and gallium arsenide.
Pessimism is the soft option.