by cincinnatus » Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:28 am
We (Skyhook, Me) may be wrong on extent of U.S. involvement (unless just tankers, and electronic attack assets stage there, versus the 31 FW from Aviano).
As for the question of how airpower without ground forces can drive the Q out of power, it depends. How will loosing his offensive power in less than two air task order cycles play out with his power base? They don't have to plink every tank, every APC, every artillery piece, every radar...just enough to change the balance, allow the rebs time to fortify, and see if the "loyalists" are really loyal. Might be some Dick Cheney-esque thinking here ("they'll greet us with roses as liberators").
But, if the French and Brits have the will to enforce a long-term No-Fly Zone, with limited U.S. Canadian and Italian assistance, then the Q could be stuck with a rump state, even if the loyalists remain loyal. It's not Chickenhawk to say that a country whose air force and air defenses have been neutered is helpless against unimpeded airpower. Now, if he goes pure Fedayeen, versus trying to maintain a leader of a nation, with an actual military force, then it puts a crimp in the airpower effectiveness.
Not a perfect scenario. Certainly a shit-load of hypocrisy (and if Saddam had been in a brutal civil war in 2003, and massacring civilians like he did in '91, then the critique would be at the 100% level of apples-to-apples...but he wasn't, so it's not). And yes, at the end of the day, it seems like this is all at least 2-weeks too late to matter. And we may well wake up tomorrow and find it was all just a puff of hot air.