Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

[Endovelico]

[Tinker]

YMix posted that here Endovelico

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=149&p=1157&sid=dc48403a1fbe9f93bfe89e0d25bcbaca#p1157

[Endovelico]

[AzariLoveIran]

[Endovelico]

I have lived in several European countries and, ever since WW2, I have never found anyone who thought that you could solve any problems by shooting people (making war). Which doesn't mean people would be unwilling to use force to defend their countries or their freedom.

What puzzles me in the US is this widespread idea that force is a legitimate means to promoting your interests. The matter-of-fact manner in which the US threatens to use force against Iran is absolutely incredible. Nobody seems to realize that the threat of the use of force is a violation of international law, forbidden by the chart of the UN. This generalized paranoia in the US will lead either to the destruction of a great deal of the US (in a nuclear war with a major power), or to a dictatorial regime at home, or both. We would be doing the world a great service by terminating all military connections with the US. No NATO, no American military basis abroad, no joint military adventures whatsoever. The US is objectively a serious threat to world peace and must be contained. And we should all encourage those Americans we know to take urgent action to elect moderate people to Congress and to the Presidency of the US, before it's too late. The trouble is that the sane Americans - and I have no doubt there are a lot of them - seem paralyzed and unable to take action.

[AzariLoveIran]

[Endovelico]

For once, Spengler's article on Inner Workings - Japan-Style Stagnation? You Should Be So Lucky - makes some sense.



The answer to the problem is saving and reducing indebtedness. But that's an answer which will only show positive results in a decade or two. Until then saving means less consuming, lowering of GDP, a fall on living standards, a lot more unemployment. The priorities will be creating a safety net for the unemployed and reconstructing productive capacity. Also a withdrawal from foreign bases, an end to ongoing wars, and a reduction in military expenses. In other words, Americans will have to go back home and stay there for quite some time. Hopefully, when the crisis is over, they will have lost any appetite for foreign adventures and will have noticed that the world can function very well without their constant interference. An additional advantage of such a posture will be for Europe to realize that political union is essential.

[Demon of Undoing]

[Colonel Sun]

This reminds of the time I took a colleague on a tour of Tokyo during a time when the nth post-bubble recession had been announced.
Afterward sitting in a Doutour's coffee shop in watching the, er, world go by, he turns to me and says
"If this is a recession, I'd like to take one of these back home."

Still Japan has been progressively drawing down it's initial high savings rate, however, it still is positive. At some point there will probably be bigger problems esp due to the legacy of the so-called bridges to nowhere govt spending programs.

Anyways, good article by Spenglerman.

There is another scenario.
The rise of promising simplistic highly-appealing yet complete wrong supposed solutions to a frightened tea-steeped population. No George F. Kennan's on the horizon.
Blaming foreigners for one's problems [something that Japan, Korea, and China also excel at], a reduction in the social safety net with spending
redirected to the govt-military-industrial complex and more foreign misadventures in a mistaken attempt to fix the problems that have their origins
back home.



Anyways, the decline of the current de facto Pax Americana, or it's evolution into something far less benign, is not something I look forward to . . . better the devil one knows . . .

[YMix]

[Colonel Sun]

[Rhapsody]

Just a fun thought: what happens if the USA simply stops paying its debt obligations back to China?

[Demon of Undoing]

[Nonc Hilaire]

[Colonel Sun]

[Sparky]

I often wonder if we aren't than needs be...

[AzariLoveIran]

.

In Britain . . In Italy . . in France . . and other European countries, not in so distant past . . there was internal and external currency . . that means you had internal French Francs (French citizen) and External French Franc (foreigners had it) . .

US might introduce Internal Dollars and External Dollars . .

Each would have different applications, restrictions . .


That a real possibility . .


.

[Colonel Sun]

[Endovelico]

[Colonel Sun]

[Demon of Undoing]

The idea that the numbers are as bad as they can get is just ludicrous. It's the product of an unimaginative mind .

[Endovelico]

[Colonel Sun]

Sallie Mae: US specific, but rather interesting and eye-opening if any of the below is true

[Endovelico]

The US never stops amazing me. In what other country would it be possible to treat the same problem (debt default) by totally different penal ways, depending on the type of loan? Bring back "madame la guillotine"... Or maybe Americans should start putting to some useful purpose the weapons their Constitution allows them to bear...

[AzariLoveIran]