Diegetics

Not sure if this belongs in this forum or not, as it is anecdotal observation, but here goes:

I work as a line cook at an Applebee's in Bucks County, PA. If anyone is unfamiliar, it is a low-mid tier chain in the US that caters to families that won't spend an extra $5 for a good steak at Outback or Longhorn. Bucks County is a very upper-middle to upper class area. It (my work) has been packed lately and I've been working long hours, which is good for me and local bartenders , but the roads have been empty, better restaurants and clubs are nearly empty--Doylestown and New Hope, once, a few years ago, booming nightlifes, have completely fizzled, as I saw and bartenders have told me. This ain't normal, and it ain't good.

What is it like in your neck of the woods?

Not in my neck of the woods, suggestive of a second world, if they were running for food, then it would be a third world country.

Restaurant traffic seems down 20-30% in central VA, based on parking lot volume.

I recall reading an article of a similar phenomena in England. Sales in high tier, and mid tier grocery chains have fallen, while sales in low tier grocery chains have risen. Interestingly enough, many of the people who shop the high tier chains bring their own bags with them. But they are bring bags that are marked with the logo of the low tier chain stores.

Attempt to hide prosperity? Is cheap the new cool?

In NYC it manifests a bit differently. Everything is still hoping but jobs are being offered ata lower pay tier than before level 2 service is rated at level one pay scales level 1 as internships, etc.

The so-called "consumer metric index" which purports to measure real-time online consumer activity is still in contraction but is rapidly rising.

Don't know how this fits in with the general gloom that I've read about and that HL and other have noted above.

http://www.consumerindexes.com

I've seen the same phenomenon around Dallas. A lot of restaurants are closing down. In other areas, I know a lot of people that have been in and out of jobs the last couple years (including me). My Dad had to close his business down in May (automotive fleet maintenance). I had to help him with the close out. Some really rough going on a lot of fronts.

I went with friends to see the latest Harry Potter movie last night. I got some funny looks when my inner populist anger got a release: I couldn't stop laughing at not one but two scenes of bankers getting flash fried. Note to Hollywood, if you are listening, more banker barbecue please. Bankers make as good a villain as Nazis do, I really can't seem to feel bad for them no matter what abuse they take.

we are technically booming but do have a two speed economy.

a skills shortage pushed the mining trades wages way above normal and the government workers always vote themselves more wages from increased taxes to keep up with them, leaving the rest of us increasingly priced out the housing market - prices boomed from around 200 grand to 450 grand in less than 5 years.

bubble city.

all the standard service industries (police,teachers,retail,etc) can barely afford to buy a house anymore, it can only be done with a 2 income family and one wage going entirely on housing payments, and the absurd part is a housing shortage means rents are about the same as loan payments, so their is no escaping it.

people like me who live on trickle down from the mining are doing ok but thats looking increasingly bleak because of all the new taxes coming in which have already reduced investment and forced most industries to wait on new projects until the political sh*tstorm dies down and the final outcomes are realised.

even if they dont kill the golden goose the will keep shaving more feathers off it until all the excess is going to government rather than small business :/

this is why im almost optimistic about china slowing down - it will hit me hard and i may even lose my house, but it will stop this insanity that is turning an extremely large percent of the population into the working poor and creating lots of social turmoil...id rather suffer a bit now while i have the years in me to recover because the crash in housing is garunteed, we are running at 7x average wage already and the "average" is alot higher than the "mode".

Noddy,

I think you are right about China. A. Gary Shilling has written some excellent commentary about it.

The last couple years of "China worship" sounds a lot like the "Japan worship" zeitgeist that occurred in the early 80's.

China has huge internal problems brewing.

its hard to seperate the gloating from the factual when it comes to western commentary on china, im still in the dunno camp but do think it will slow down.

they are a very resiliant people and they have been doing civilisation and capitalism for a long time now - communism is the historical absurdity, not capitalism.

for aslong as they can keep swapping toxic american dollars for real assets and materials it will continue - it hasnt got as much todo with the european and american consumer markets as many commentators say... the trick will be how quickly they can uplift the lives of the poor and if they cause entitlement problems doing so.

In central Florida, there have never been so many long term unemployed or dramatically underemployed. An office manager that ran major government institutions is working as a three day a week temp secretary. No local changes for the better in sight and people are just waiting for the Federal and state money to stop. At that point, they will have nothing. Nobody is talking about what happens after that.

out west where the buffalo roam on reservations with 40% unemployment

and the truck/car carcasses that were everywhere are being hauled to scrap yards like never before for $180 a ton ...

a strong whiff of desperation overpowers the feedlot aroma

as drought stressed ranchers without pasture ship cattle

to slaughter houses as fast as they can to keep the lights on...

trouble a comin

big trouble


seems already arrived back east

todays drudge has these stories:


Street Sign Thieves Steal Dozens of Signs In Boston Suburb...

Cops Spend HUNDREDS OF HOURS Of Overtime To Catch 5 Copper Wire Thieves...

$20k worth stolen in Illinois...

Armed Masked Man Robs Church Bingo Game...

Hay Stolen From CT Petting Zoo...

The mall parking lot is full, the swimming pool is full, the walmart is always full, most restaurants are full expect for my favorite mexican restaurant peppers which was closed after one of the money partners was indicted. Paving like hell around here and a lot of construction ongoing. The students get back to WKU in a couple of weeks and then it will get busy.

Things are fine here in the Pacific Northwest on the surface. I am disappointed with the job market, however. Lots of software openings, this being a global high-tech hub and all, but employers are absurdly picky about desired skills. I'll be graduating in the next year from a doctoral program (EE), but I want nothing to do with the field anymore. It's going to be really tough making any sort of horizontal transition, even though I consider my skillset and aptitudes to be broadly applicable. I'm not optimistic at this point and really regret the PhD.

just caught up with an old friend from melbourne, who like me lives on his wits and trickle down work.

he is saying the levels of insecurity and pettyness have risen exponentially and the general mood of the city is not what it was - he is desperate to get out before it gets nasty.

Thank you all for your responses

Not sure what to make of the current situation, but it was 103 degrees F Friday and 101 today. Nobody out. Will take the hours I can get--shorter in the summer, as I make more per hour than my black and Mexican counterparts (fa real, it isn't fair, but I will not be arguing my junk wage down to their level, as we speak frankly as cooks and they know I get more as a white American that 'knows the difference').

I went out with a real, old friend on Wednesday afternoon/evening and this girl would appeal to any man: 8+ face, tits like volleyballs, artistic with rich parents. She ain't making it. If this girl can't, then God help us all--I'll see ya in the funny papers.