Iran to Send Powerful Military Presence to US Borders

[AzariLoveIran]

[HAL9000]

One reason UK left the Persian Gulf (i.e. its military way of obtaining cheap oil), was because new oil was discovered in the North Sea.. But this oil is running out now, and it is possible that UK will be in deep trouble. Nearly 50 % of that oil and gas has already been extracted.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_oil" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But it is not clear how much new shale oil and shale gas is found in the US and Europe. The estimates vary wildly. If the higher estimates are correct, it will be possible for the US and EU to abandon the Persian Gulf.

Another factor, still a big unknown, is the development of new batteries. If new batteries can be made within a decade (I mean cheap enough), then this would change the military tension also, since the nations of the world won't have to fight each other for energy.

[YMix]

[AzariLoveIran]

[HAL9000]

Of course, I meant the energy density to be made cheap enough. Already there are denser batteries in laboratories but they are not commercially available and the cost would be prohibitive. But IF this is done within a decade, it will have political implications also, namely the US and EU will not depend on foreign oil.

[AzariLoveIran]

[Alexis]

[Alexis]

To sum up the reality of energy and military balance in the Arabo-Persian Gulf:

1) While Gulf countries account for a large part of fossil energy production, they have an even larger part of fossil energy reserve, in fact a majority of global oil reserves. As peak oil is reached (possibly now, anyway within the very next few years), global oil production will begin to decline and an even larger part of remaining production will come from the Gulf, at the very same time when demand for oil will be more intense because of China, India and other emergents (even if a global depression delays that for a few years).

Strategic importance of the Gulf will then be magnified even compared to where it is now

2) Iranian strategic power was increased by US criminal and stupid invasion of Iraq, because the only potential Arab power able to counterbalance Iran was smashed for good. Iran has also increased its military power with adapted doctrines and autonomously produced weapons, which were the main factor behind Hizbullah' successful war against Israel in South Lebanon 2006: the Shia Lebanese Party was able to make reconquest of South Lebanon costly enough to Israel for the Hebrew State to throw the towel, preferring a draw to a victory which Israel would have had to pay with several days/weeks of severe losses à la European-WWI.

Iranian military capability for conquest is minimal: Iran doesn't have any credible option to conquer territory in the West, South, East nor North. The real Iranian capability is to spoil Gulf oil production / export during enough time (a number of months) for global recession, possibly global depression to result. This is a deterrent much more threatening than a potential future Iranian nuclear deterrent able to lob a couple fission bombs onto populated areas, because a few fission detonations would be much less destructive than a global depression. Also, by contrast with nukes, it's a capability that Iran really has.

That deterrent is of course an existential one, meaning that using that capability of strong disruption of Gulf oil production and export so as to provoke world depression would result in such counter-reaction by US and other countries as to collapse the present Iranian regime, just as Third Reich and Imperial Japan regimes collapsed. The moral way to react would be for US and Western countries to face and to pay the kind of price which Israel refused to pay in 2006, accepting heavy (military) losses to terminate the Iranian regime. The easy way would be to end it the same way that Imperial Japan regime was ended in August 1945. In that case, I would strongly insist to follow the moral way (...but I'm not in charge).

Given the existence of this deterrent, Iran is sure than it will be left alone. Plans to bomb suspected sites of Iranian nuclear-weapon research have been scrapped because of that deterrent (to the great dismay of our beloved Spengler)

That's already a lot. But that's all. Iran has no ability whatsoever to protect another country, minimal ability to project power (a couple floating targets close to the US coast doesn't count as power projection)

Iranian strategy is based on poking continuously at US, UK, Israel and others and making all sorts of noise, hoping to induce as many people as possible into believing that since US, UK, Israel and others are not attacking Iran after its provocative behaviour, it must be because Iran is so powerful... and such a powerful country could protect me?

Reality is different: Iran's military ability being limited to provoking a global depression results in Iran being protected against attacks to its vital interests, at the same time as Iran is unable to protect any country else than itself.

[monster_gardener]

[Tinker]

The US should simply state a policy that says if it is even suspected that these ships have nuclear weapons, they must submit to being boarded with 15 minutes notice, or they will be sunk.

[AzariLoveIran]

[Tinker]

If you think Iran could commit an act of war like kidnapping American soldiers, and America not strike, you are nuts.

[AzariLoveIran]

[Demon of Undoing]

Oh, yeah, and you better watch your ass in blue water; even more, when you get west of the Azores, you have just run afoul of something much older, much nastier, and much more viciously enforced than NATO, OPEC and the UN. You run into President Monroe, and a doctrine rooted so deeply in the American psyche we almost started a nuclear war over it's corollaries.

I am all for the US minding it's business and all, and the Doctrine seems unfair, but you provoke the bluewater fleet in this hemisphere at your peril, and an Iranian presence will be provocative. Make no mistake, their presence will be tolerated, mainly because we could crush everything floating in ten minutes, but let's not pretend the Iranian hulls will be there by guile and craft. They will be there due to American patience. Even if the US becomes totally isolationist, only so much of this sort of thing will be countenanced.

[Tinker]

Rumors of American decline have been greatly exaggerated.

[AzariLoveIran]

[Alexis]

[Alexis]

[monster_gardener]

[Tinker]

[AzariLoveIran]

[Alexis]

[AzariLoveIran]

[Ibrahim]

[Ibrahim]