Diegetics

between china pumping out the cheap stuff and japan and germany pumping out the sophisticated stuff nearly all the local factories around the world shutdown or got heaviliy protected by tax payers dollars and became expensive zombies.

the nature of the economy is changing, old thinking wont get you anywhere... sure technology patents and internet innovations will be good cash cows for a relatively small groups of people but the big mass of people that used to work in factories or retail ... well....

Knowing that Spengler is most likely wrong on his demographic predictions, the comment he makes about the drop in value of large lot single family homes is an interesting one.

And Azari: American exports are at an all time high. So saying, 'it's a bit late', is abject nonsense.

yes i see it on a global level but i also see the dangers of being globaly exposed and the maelstrom that is global economics..

you mentioned smaller, more localised production in one of your rants, and this will provide some counter balance to the above - changing our societies *back* to an almost seasonal type of perspective, which is a very conservative way of looking at things

no, you wont be garunteed a stable mundane job because you got the right bit of paper, you will need to save for bad times and gaps in employment as you retrain.

Pete Seeger said it well.

Ah, but why the weaseling around?

Is this collapse augur something "better" or "worse" than before for the hapless American people?


I'm betting dollars that no one would dare answer this question.

the dice are up in the air, too early yet to really get a feel for the outcome.

its unlikely, yet possible, the cities lose alot of population, and the above small community revival happens and we are poorer yet comfier - more insulated from the ups and down of the global economy and more capable of feeding and housing ourselves without it.. still got all the techno toys but not quite so dependant on the market for them.

which so happens to be the advantage much of asia has over us at the moment, i know plenty of south east asians with a foot in either world and they can lose jobs or do riskier capitalist activities without putting basic food and housing at risk like a westerner does.

if the mega suburb cities dont depopulate, if we have moved too far from that world then civil disorder and the great cleansing of the evil ones called the pogrom of 2012 creates

* progressive distopia - eg: 1984 or maybe brave new world if they legalise drugs... community housing and constant social engineering.
* capitalist distopia - eg: judge dredd, transient working class who get company housing from a feudal lord, ermm corporate and lots of starving and homeless people.

if the americans do suck it up, take the hit and dont have a civil war, then it will be noice blend of the above two .. aka like now but more so.

Spenglerman is being too pessimistic as usual

What middle class?