The Asia + the Antipodes Thread

[Colonel Sun]

[Tinker]

[Endovelico]

[Tinker]

[noddy]

[Tinker]

Preach it brother noddy!

[noddy]

[noddy]

[noddy]

[Colonel Sun]

[Endovelico]

[noddy]

http://www.news.com.au/business/austral ... 5938441202

those damn communists playing games with their dollar like a third world country, ruining our export ability via artificial manipulation of the exchange rate.

what was the problem with the Chinese again ?

[AzariLoveIran]

[noddy]

its probably my poor writing style Azari, but you always seem to miss the sarcasm.

[Endovelico]

By not allowing their currency to be freely convertible, China has been cheating on everybody else. Time to teach them a lesson on economics.

[Demon of Undoing]

[Tinker]

[jerryberry]

Demon,

There are Chinese immersion schools all over the place and depending on the age of your kid, getting a Chinese babysitter could be the most productive means toward a bilingual education.

[Colonel Sun]

Agreed. A Chinese babysitter is probably the best way to go from the point of view of learning Mandarin.

Deja vu. I recall when everyone was rushing to learn Japanese and Western businessmen were reading translations of samurai texts.

Makes me wonder how the current situation will play out.

[Tinker]

[Demon of Undoing]

As we speak, everybody who is anybody on the Pacific rim is in a rush to weaken their own currency, the better to avoid being the beggar in " beggar thy neighbor" . I don't think " trade war" is too strong of a term, especially considering that we are in early days of it right now.

[Tinker]

[Demon of Undoing]

There's back and forth, and then there is making moves that can ruin somebody's economy . If we ramp our currency down as far as we can ( and that seems to be the plan) , it will have concrete consequences to China's ability to export here ( and everywhere ) . Not sure they will just take that sitting down , especially considering that exporting is going to be their only surefire means of survival, as the domestic market can only grow so fast. Other than that, they have predicated growth and internal stability ( and therefore trade and regional stability) to easy exports . If you think they ought to have a harder time at it , fine, but be aware what you are asking for, because you are going to get it, for sure.

If you are just going to remove sense of scale by just saying " Yah, it's capitalism, anything goes" well then don't be surprised when it goes from a trade war to a shooting war. Remember , what got the shooting going in earnest in WWII was not the economic downturn in and of itself, but because protectionism and trade collapsed in time with " national interests " . We can either do national interests or global trade and stability interests, not both at the same time .

It really boils down to who suffers less from shedding overcapacity in the short term . Seeing as how there is a crapload of overcapacity to shed ( unless we keep playing "endless debt for consumption") , all will suffer . But the sorting out might be seriously unpleasant for some . I say chart a middle path.

[Tinker]

[Demon of Undoing]

I don't think a "diplomatic success " of the kind you are talking about is long term successful at all, not if we are serious about cooperation as opposed to dictation. The whole attitude was not one of " we will negotiate" , but " we demand the leading place at any talk that has anything to do with what we might interest ourselves in " . That's not negotiation, that's bullying .

If China is just shrugging it off , they are acting contrary to what they put up in Xinhua , and what they have been saying since Geithner threatened WTO sanctions with " currency manipulation" language in his confirmation appearance . It was destabilizing then and its destabilizing now . I am not the only one seeing trade war movement either, far from it .