Diegetics

Five weeks to go until the first electoral test of the Obama administration's performance and control of Congress up for grabs.

Are the Democrats in for an almighty bitch-slap from the Republicans? Will the Tea Party people galvanise support against Obama or cause moderate voters to scamper away from them, and will these fleeing moderates vote at all? Can the Democrats energise their base and turn out their vote? How do the numbers look?

It seems to me that the Rs can't gain much; a lot of the increase of support for them is merely in places that they would win if Hitler ran. The vote splitting by the Tbaggers will hurt them in contested areas. Then there's the nutbar factor. A lot of these TBs are certifiable and it's only a matter of time before 1 or more of them does something too loony to justify, that will splash them all.

Overall, the Ds majority is safe I think, in both houses. If they get lucky, they might gain some seats.

The Republicans will gain a little bit, enough to break the critical House majority at the very least. More interestingly they may snatch a few states. They might have peaked too soon for 2012, but we'll see what kind of legs the Tea Party has and what the economy is doing by then.

Worth reading.