Diegetics

Bear in mind that these are only the views of a dirty, moon-worshiping foreigner, but I think Romeny can beat Obama pretty handily, assuming no October surprises and assuming he doesn't get beat up too badly in the primaries. But the GOP is very disciplined in the primaries and I don't really see a viable contender.

As a boring centrist Romeny has the ability to scoop up disillusioned liberals, and this is the key to an easy GOP win. Plus, he could easily get a second term as, unlike Obama, he isn't really claiming to be anything else. Expect his policies to be a continuation of Obama's, just as Obama's are a continuation of Bush II's.

It'll be interesting to see what all the Tea Partiers do when the "Lyin' African" is gone.

Mods: slide this over to American Politics. I am dumb.

Do not underestimate the general Christian prejudice against Mormons.
Like most prejudices, it is strongest against those who are close but distinctively different.

Don't under estimate the Liberal hate for corporate raiders.

It's a tough call. I think it is fair to say that their is pretty strong anti-Mormon feelings on all sides. Obama hate seems to be about the same as Clinton hate back in the early-mid 90's, will be interesting to see. I couldn't possibly predict which one is stronger, mormon hate or Clinton/Obama hate.

Romney can win, but so can Perry. They are competing for the same voters in the primary, leaving R Paul as the real dark horse. If Palin enters the race Ron Paul will win the primary since that bloc will be split 3 ways.

Romeny?

All we are seeing now is Republican cannibalism.

Everybody is taking turns. Every day one candidate sits in the cast iron pot, and the others stir.

Refiner's fire baby.

I think people always get this sort of strange fantasy of parties imploding and cannibalizing themselves during primary season. This is what a primary is for, and what a normal primary is like.

This is what I chide Mr. Perfect on a lot, looking at localized effects in the media hype. Things haven't crystallized yet, and polls only reflect what the prevailing mood is AT THAT MOMENT.

Hillary Clinton's win was looked at as so inevitable so a Democratic organizer I know wouldn't consider working for Barack because as he put it, "I want to work in New York, and no matter what happens she'll still be the Junior Senator.", he ended up working on the Obama campaign when Obama started proving he had the juice through his incredible social media fundraising. A lot of people do not understand the deep impact Obama's campaign had on Democratic organizing. His campaign had really granular local reach and created institutions where previously there wasn't one. David Axelrod is a fucking genius for that shit.

Well no, I know that intellectual and moral bankruptcy runs deep in the Democrat party, and as such many are eager to re-elect the continuer of GWB's foreign policy and are willing to put ideology above failed results of real Obama policy. So in NYC it surprises me not at all that party activists are enthusiastic, for purely partisan reasons.

I mean, I expect Obama to get at least 40% of the vote, that has to come from somewhere.

I thought you had me on ignore.

This isn't comparable to 2004 but Mitt Romney is the Republican version of John Kerry and will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory barring any greater catastrophic downturns in the economy.