There is a difference between being smart and being cunning. The latter is more important for a politician. Psychopathic self-confidence never hurts, either.
Never hurts in terms of getting elected. In terms of keeping people out of nuclear exchanges with China, on the other hand...
Looking at the field of candidates, it looks like the Repubs are doing their damnedest to lose 2012.
Romney is the Republican version of Kerry: boring, uninspiring and the Romneycare will make it hard to hit Obama where it matters. The creepy Mormon smile (c) permanently affixed to his face doesn't help either.
Paul is a principled statesman, sadly with a mixture of healthy common sense and a few really odd principles (all the gold standard stuff) and with the charisma of a Orgo Textbook. He's also really old.
Bachman, looks like she has not aged a day in the past 10 years, but frankly, there's something scary in her eyes: if it weren't for the lack of red glow, she could easily pass for the Terminator-T20. Her stance of creationism is a no-no for me, but the public might not frankly give a flying fuck if she shows herself to be solid otherwise. As the only skirt in the room, she easily stands out in a sea of gray suits. If she sticks to talking without gaffes about taxes and unemployment she might make it. Overall assessment - a more competent version of Palin, but maybe lade with even loonier baggage from Oral Roberts U. I may yet be pleasantly surprised, but I'm not holding my breath.
Pawlenty is a competent manager and would probably make a good president, but his heart doesn't really seem to be in the race, and the fringe pandering he's tried to do has been very half-hearted and transparent. Not clear that hell be able to gain a solid primary constituency. He and Romney are going for the same constituency (balanced budget moderates) and Romney has the first mover advantage, leaving Pawlenty with a lot of catching up to do. His one big advantage is a proven record of doing at the state level exactly what he proposes to do at the Federal. I would vote for this guy for president.
Palin Since I favor the moderate wing, I really hope Palin will run, so that she and Bachman have to compete and split the tea party vote. I think it's unlikely that she will run, of if she runs, it's unlikely that she will put together a serious campaign. Right-wing victimhood and bitching against lamestream media can only carry her so far. She has 0% chance of being elected if she miraculously survives the primary.
Cain Pizza magnate wants to be president. Ever since seeing Morgan Freeman be president in '98, I've wanted a black US president with a deep reassuring voice - and Obama is too tall and skinny, and not baritone enough for my taste. Too Eurofaggy if you want.
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_e_smile.gif)
Even the name Cain has a nice biblical sound to it (for all of us typical Christians who've read the first chapter and a half of the bible). As a pizza magnate, he's the anti-intellectual par exellence. If only he'd been state governor for 8 years or so, he'd be just about ripe. As it is, he's never really held elected office and he's a complete green politically. He thinks that's a good thing, but I have my doubts. I don't think he'll do particularly well. Latent racism and his lack of experience will likely sink him before his campaign really takes off.
Jeb Bush A truly competent fellow, sadly forever tarred by his last name. Repeatedly denied wanting to run, and frankly, I don't think he'll dare run. By 2016 he will be forgotten, I think.
I haven't got enough info on any of the rest to write anything.
My gut right now: odds 7:3 Obama gets reelected.