China a democracy in a generation?

[Tinker]

[Ammianus]

A decade ago there was (actually still is) a debate regarding who/where will the principled opposition to the CCP come from, and inevitably three sides were brought up: 1. Urban, educated, upper middle class to professionals well versed in current events and ever more cosmopolitan in their tastes 2. Stagnant or downwards trending rural peasants who suffer disproportionately from pollution and environmental degradation 3. Urban working classes, many w/ rural roots, who are dislocated, disoriented and constantly vulnerable to the depredations of both multinational corporations and the local govt.

Recently it has become ever clearer that #1 is either apathetic towards political change, mealy mouthed about it, or is outright hostile towards it. In large part they have gained the most from the CCP's peculair national capitalist policies. Being so close, in debt and in hock to the Party, makes them all but impossible to generate and lead any potential revolutions. We are thus left with #2 and #3. #2, despite their overwhelming numbers, is actually on the decline, as ever more of their descendants make way to the cities and those left behind either become sick or dead from the environment. Some of them have profited from the economy, but most are still too hard scrabbled and isolated. Because they're so dispersed and diverse(ethically,culturally) across the country, a spontaneous local movement maybe possible but will never manage to spread, sustain, and link itself to other regions. We are thus left with #3, where their number is ever increasing and will soon reach a critical mass that may outnumber both #1 and 2. Ironically, the infamous proletariat revolution may finally arrive, one century after its supposed inception by Mao.

[Tinker]

I think China will remain China and just keep on it's Confucian socialist authoritarian way. They will likely develop a status-quoism where personal freedom is rather high as long as they respect the infrastructure and its edicts.

[Ibrahim]

[Ammianus]

[Ammianus]

[Ibrahim]

[Azrael]

[Azrael]

[Ammianus]

[Ibrahim]

[YMix]

[Azrael]

[Azrael]

[YMix]

[Tinker]

Somehow I imagine that the people who would be pining for a Maoist resurgence are not the same people that Ibrahim sat down to tea with.

It is entirely possible that the emergent capitalist class and the rural undereducated labor class have completely different views as to how China should be managed.

[Torchwood]

[Ibrahim]

[Tinker]

I genuinely believe that the US President is an individual who is working for the betterment of the country. But that has little impact on how I view corruption. I think that both Bush and Obama care about the betterment of the country. I just don't necessarily believe that what they see as the betterment of the country has any bearing on how I view it.

[Azrael]

[Azrael]

[Ibrahim]

[Azrael]

[Azrael]

[Ibrahim]

So the extra-national billionaires move out of China, but all the industrial capital moves into China. It sounds like a pretty good trade, especially of the global economy tanks.